COP29  Climate Christmas in Azerbaijan

• COP29 seems to be distinct from the usual COP noise – it promises action. And not only action, but also enhanced ambition.

The festival season is upon us again. Shimmering lights, exotic foods, heartfelt greetings, people flying over from all around the world to be with family and friends, gifts and rewards, gala times, great conversations, and promises to do better this year. Like all its previous editions, COP29 guarantees all of this and much more under the presidency of H.E. Mukhtar Babayev, COP29 President-Designate. The annual climate Christmas taking place in Baku, Azerbaijan, also aspires to be what every COP before it did – different. But will Climate Christmas really be different this year? In this article, let’s explore the possibility and what it means for Kenya and Africa.

Kenya’s contribution in Baku will be more pronounced this year as it takes on the role of the Chair of the African Group of Negotiators. Its focus is expected to be on securing climate finance for the African brethren, advancing action for loss and damage, and determining carbon market regulations. Kenya estimates about three to five percent of the GDP per year to be lost to climate disasters. Recovering the damage thus caused will require strong negotiations in Baku. COP29 seems to be distinct from the usual COP noise – it promises action. And not only action, but also enhanced ambition.

The Kenyan delegation led by President Ruto must ensure a few things – a clear realistic ambition from all parties irrespective of their economic and geographic status and aligned financial commitments (preferably cheques), especially from the wealthy nations. These may not be significantly distinct from the previous COPs and their commitments. However, the following addendums to the commitments may prove to be critical for Kenya and Africa – strict penalties for developed countries upon missing the climate and financial targets thereby making them accountable, responsibility in action, and transparency to ensure the funds reach where they are most needed. Maybe they could call this the ‘Santa Clause’. Kenya’s potential claim to climate fame rests upon leveraging these two pillars in Baku.

Enhance ambition

It should come as no surprise that the world is on the verge of overshooting the 1.5 deg Celsius target. But can it be avoided? Enhanced climate ambitions of countries may be a good start. Exponential increase the targets and commitments to follow through with aligned national plans may have the potential to work this miracle. The New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance has been heavily contested and is expected to be finalized in 2025. It hopes to be the definitive statement on the ambitious financial resources required by the developing countries to fulfil their climate change commitments, keeping in mind their developing needs. This also affirms what Kenya has been advocating – enhanced ambitions from the developed countries.

Enable action

Enabling climate action to meet enhanced ambition is now more important than ever. Climate action, however, does not come cheap. What exactly will it cost? According to the Independent High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance, about USD 2,400 billion will be needed by 2030 to meet the climate targets. While the ‘what’ of climate finance may have been answered, it immediately begs the question of ‘who’ will fund it. Leaders at COP29, hailed as the ‘Finance COP’, must find a way to rethink the current commitment of the wealthy of USD 100 billion each year, a target that has not been met. To achieve this, the global leaders will have to put aside their differences, especially the glaring north-south divide on climate finance.

According to the NCQG, Africa needs about USD 1.3 trillion annually to address the climate crisis by 2030. A significant quantum of this is required for Kenya for tackling its exacerbating climate-related disasters. As Kenya leads the financing negotiations in Baku, it must come back with commitments to fulfil the need.

Whose loss and whose damage

African countries and small island developing states, some of the most vulnerable, continue to be treated like the underprivileged brethren at Christmas – they may have a seat at the table, but not in conversations. For these countries, the climate risk is significantly more real, resources dismally few, and support woefully inadequate. The Loss and Damage fund, still under construction, may just be too tiny to meet the needs of the world. The private sector, therefore, must be mobilized to look at these countries are key emerging markets and design climate products that suit their needs. In recent years, Kenya has been particularly vulnerable to recurring droughts. It has begun deploying innovative policies and interventions to improve the country’s resilience to climate disasters. However, financing continues to be a challenge in recovering these losses.

Santa Clause

What the world really needs is a climate miracle in Baku. Skepticism aside, COP29 must be different than the others and there are indications that it might just be. The parties must understand that this may just be the last year that the world can afford without much action.

The Kenyan delegation led by President Ruto must ensure a few things – a clear realistic ambition from all parties irrespective of their economic and geographic status and aligned financial commitments (preferably cheques), especially from the wealthy nations. These may not be significantly distinct from the previous COPs and their commitments. However, the following addendums to the commitments may prove to be critical for Kenya and Africa – strict penalties for developed countries upon missing the climate and financial targets thereby making them accountable, responsibility in action, and transparency to ensure the funds reach where they are most needed. Maybe they could call this the ‘Santa Clause’.

By Ashay Abbhi, Principal, Energy and Climate Change, Intellecap